The first stage of the research will be to model a variety of moderate to extreme case demographic scenarios based on the probabilistic approaches of Lutz (2006).

The scenarios are:

• (i) persistent very low fertility;
• (ii) cycles of fertility boom and fertility bust;
• (iii) radical increases in longevity. e.g. assuming the widespread use of technologies which would add significantly to both (i) the normal healthy lifespan and (ii) the maximum lifespan for human beings.
• The second stage of the research will be to explore society’s capacity to adjust to changes in population age structure and to assess the adequacy of the available analytical tools to assess the social and economic consequences of demographic development.
• The third stage of the research will examine the implications of these scenarios for age-related transfers, intergenerational redistribution, and patterns of generational succession in selected institutions.