_square_md.jpg)
At the Cecil Summit held in Oxford this week, bringing together leading figures from across the world to consider future initiatives to preserve the African lion, Professor Sarah Harper, Director of the Institute of Population Ageing, outlined the population pressures facing several African countries, due to still high childbearing, and the impact this was having on land.
"If sub-Saharan Africa were to lower its present total fertility rate of 5.4 to reach replacement level fertility by 2050, (instead of the projected rate of 3.2) it would result in a sub-Saharan African population of 1.76 billion by 2050….. 400 million fewer people than UN’s medium-fertility scenario projection.
If the region maintained replacement level fertility thereafter, the population would be 3.1 billion by 2100 instead of the 3.9 billion projected by UN’s medium-fertility scenario—roughly a tripling rather than a quadrupling of population.
This change would reduce food demand in 2050 … reducing the food gap in sub-Saharan Africa by roughly 25%. At the yields estimated by FAO, this reduction would also reduce the need for additional cropland equal to the size of Germany. And this would of course reduce the pressure on natural landscapes - such as the habitats of lions."
Sarah joined a group thinkers from fields as diverse as economics, development, international relations and ethics for the three day workshop, presenting research from the Institute Collen Programme, which explores the role of education as a driver of fertility reduction; and of environment – physical, social and cultural – as a factor in household reproductive decision making; and the necessity of placing these at the centre of fertility reduction programmes.
> Cecil and the conservation of lions
