Mohamed Ismail is an Affiliate Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing. His work develops mathematical and computational frameworks to better understand ageing dynamics and long-term care systems, with a particular focus on how time spent in care shapes future demand, costs, and system behaviour.

With a background spanning engineering, computer science, and mathematical finance, he brings a structured, model-based perspective to complex social challenges. His recent research focuses on duration-dependent processes, aggregation consistency, and the development of tractable models that connect individual ageing trajectories with system-level outcomes.

Mohamed began his career as a quantitative analyst with global financial institutions including Merrill Lynch, HSBC, Mizuho Financial Group, and Credit Suisse, before transitioning to quantitative social research. In 2009, he founded Analytical Research Ltd, applying statistical and mathematical modelling techniques to policy-relevant questions in ageing and care.

He has collaborated with academic and policy institutions across the UK, Europe, Australia, and the Middle East, contributing to research on population ageing, migration, and long-term care systems. His work appears in peer-reviewed journals and international policy reports, including contributions to United Nations, World Bank, and World Health Organization regional ageing assessments.

 

Selected appointments, advisory roles and contributions:

• Director, Analytical Research Ltd, 2009–present.
• Contributor, United Nations ESCWA Population and Development Report No. 9: Building Forward Better for Older Persons in the Arab Region, 2023.
• Contributor, World Bank Report on Ageing Demographics in the Middle East and North Africa, MENARAH Network, 2023.
• Independent scientific advisor, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), National Evaluation of Medical Care Models of the Homeless, 2015–2020.
• Core Member, MENARAH Network, 2019–present.
• Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Australia, 2016.
• Visiting Fellow, Department of Sociology, University of Bergen, Norway, 2014.
• Guest Lecturer, Future Social Service Institute, RMIT University, Australia, 2017.
• Guest Lecturer, Department of Statistics, University of Southern Queensland, Australia, 2016.

 

Publications 

Hussein, S., Ismail, M., Rosenberg, M., Nababan, H., Ismail, O., & Elfeky, S. (2025). Evidence gaps on unmet health and social care needs in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region. Research report.

Ismail M. (2023). The Effect of Social Contacts on the Uptake of Health Innovations among Older Ethnic Minorities in the UK: A Mixed Methods Study. Sustainability, 15(14):10839. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151410839

The United Nations, ESCWA (2023). Population and Development Report Issue No. 9: Building Forward Better for Older Persons in the Arab Region (Ismail, M., contributor, officially acknowledged).

Hussein, S. & Ismail, M. (2023). Ageing Demographics in the Middle East and North Africa: Policy Opportunities and Challenges. A report to the World Bank, Head Quarters: Washington D.C. Published by MENARAH Network.

Ismail, M., & Hussein, S. (2021). An Evidence Review of Ageing, Long-Term Care Provision and Funding Mechanisms in Turkey: Using Existing Evidence to Estimate Long-Term Care Cost. Sustainability, 13(11), 6306. doi:10.3390/su13116306

Aspinal, F., Stevens, M., Manthorpe, J., Woolham, J., Samsi, K., Baxter, K., Hussein, S. and Ismail, M. (2019). Safeguarding and personal budgets: the experiences of adults at risk. Journal of Adult Protection. 21(3): 157-168.

Ismail, M. and Hussein, S. (2019). Long-Term Care Policies in the Gulf Region: A Case Study of Oman. Journal of Aging and Social Policy, 31(4): 338-357.

Stevens, M., Woolham, J., Manthorpe, J., Aspinal, F., Hussein, S., Baxter, K., Samsi, K., Ismail, M. (2018). Implementing safeguarding and personalisation in social work: findings from practice. Journal of Social Work. 18(1): 3-22.

Christensen, K., Hussein, S. and Ismail, M. (2017). Migrant intelligence shaping work destination choice: the case of long-term care work in the United Kingdom and Norway. European Journal of Aging. 14(3): 219-232.

Ismail, M., Hussein, S., Stevens, M., Woolham, J., Manthorpe, J., Baxter, K., Samsi, K. & Aspinal, F. (2017). Do personal budgets increase the risk of abuse? Evidence from English national data. Journal of Social Policy. 46(2): 291-311.

Hussein, S. & Ismail, M. (2017). Ageing and Elderly Care in the Arab Region: Policy Challenges and Opportunities. Ageing International, 42(3): 274-289.

Hussein, S., Ismail, M. & Manthorpe, J. (2016). Changes in turnover and vacancy rates of care workers in England from 2008 to 2010: Panel analysis of national workforce data. Health & Social Care in the Community, 24(5): 547-556.

Hussein, S., Ismail, M. & Manthorpe, J. (2016). Male workers in the female-dominated long-term care sector: evidence from England. Journal of Gender Studies, 25(1): 35-49.

Manthorpe, J., Stevens, M., Samsi, K., Aspinal, F., Woolham, J., Hussein, S., Ismail, M., & Baxter, K. (2015). Did anyone notice the transformation of adult social care? An analysis of Safeguarding Adult Board Annual Reports. Journal of Adult Protection, 17(1): 19-30.

Hussein, S., Manthorpe, J. & Ismail, M. (2014). Ethnicity at work: the case of British minority workers in the long-term care sector. Equality, Diversity and Inclusion: An International Journal. 33(2): 177-192.

Ismail, M. (1994). Understanding clinical narrative text, natural language processing. Paper presented at the 29th Annual Conference of the Institute of Statistical Studies and Research, Cairo.

Ismail, M. (1993). Expert system for diagnosing the effect of earthquakes on buildings. Paper presented at the 3rd International Conference of Al-Azhar Engineering (AEIC), Cairo.