Around my mother-in-law’s 82nd birthday a few months ago, the media reported on the age of Mbah Gotho of Indonesia, reportedly born on 31 December 1870 and a full 145 years of age. It was quite a dinner topic with the subsequent flow of the conversation about whether my mother-in-law could imagine herself living for another 63 years. Neither she nor any of us could even vaguely contemplate such....
Although Mr Gotho’s longevity story is not a happy one, we should acknowledge one of humankind’s most remarkable collective successes of the late 20th and early 21st centuries: the longevity story!
The 21st century will indeed be the century of the centenarians.
Over the past 150-years we have seen a constant increase in life expectancy at birth of 2.5 years per decade. Life expectancies have been increasing quite dramatically since the turn of the 20th century, but what has been particularly striking is the improvement in survival at older ages. There seems to be an increasing body of evidence that lives will continue to be extended for some time to come.
In the UK, for example, the number of centenarians has increased from around 2,500 in 1980 to almost 13,000 in 2010, and by the middle of the century the number is expected to be close to 300,000. It is estimated that around a third of babies born in the UK in 2012 will survive to celebrate their 100th birthday. So more people are living longer, and the longest lived are living longer too. The numbers of not only centenarians have increased over recent decades but also those of centenarians reaching the age of 105 and older. There were an estimated 120 centenarians aged 105 and over in 1984; in 1994 these numbers have more than doubled to 280. Another decade later (2004) these numbers increased to 380 and in 2014 it reached 780.
The 21st century will however also be the century of extremes and inequalities related to longevity.
By far the majority of older persons are ageing in the more developing parts of the world with a dramatic increase in longevity estimated. This rise in longevity, in contrast with the more developed parts of the world, typically unfolds within the context of poverty, economic strain and constricted public resources. Longevity, even if achieved, then often entails a life of compromised health with scant access to general (let alone appropriate or specialised) care and similarly constrained financial resources.
The diversity and the clear disparities in levels of health, wealth and longevity in old age that exist between and within developed and developing world populations stress the urgent need to refine approaches for achieving an affordable ‘good old age’ globally. The 2nd Africa Region Conference of Gerontology and Geriatrics ‘Long-Term Care Systems for Africa: Setting Agendas’ Nairobi, Kenya on 6 – 8 December will specifically contemplate and address our future longevities in sub-Saharan Africa, drawing from developed world lessons.
About the Author
Dr. Jaco Hoffman is a Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing and co-ordinates the African Research Network on Ageing (AFRAN) and the Society and Environment Research Cluster.
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