We now live in a world where more than half of us live in urban areas, and yet little more than half a century ago, less than a third of us did so. The future looks no less urbanised – on the contrary. In Europe, around three quarters of the population live in urban areas. This does not mean that the world’s rural population has been in decline. In fact, it has been growing to its current almost 3.5 billion since the middle of the 20th century, but it is expected to peak soon and then begin to decline.
It is startling to note that the world’s urban population stands today at almost 4 billion. This is a massive leap into urbania for the world given that world urban population amounted to less than ¾ billion in 1950. Around another 2.5 billion people will swell the numbers living in urban areas around the world by 2050. So, from ¾ billion to 6.4 billion urbanites in just 100 years!
But the world is not only urbanising, it is ageing too, both at an individual and population level. At an individual level, life expectancies at birth have increased at the global level from 48 years in the mid-20th century to around 70 years today, and are expected to rise to 76 years by the mid-21st century. At the population level, the proportion of the world’s population aged 60 years and over has increased from 8 per cent in the mid-20th century to 11 per cent, and by 2050, it is expected to reach 21 per cent, equating to more than 2 billion people.
In this ageing and urbanising world, there is the tendency to view sustainable development as an urban issue, but for those living in rural, depopulating or sparsely populated regions of the world sustainable development is no less of an issue than in those booming urban agglomerations struggling to provide shelter, transport and services. Here too the management of rural areas by responsible governments is essential to sustain and develop these areas, including access to services and information and communication technologies, which can facilitate service delivery and ease the geographical disengagement of families.
So does it matter where we live?
Obviously, to the extent that we have a choice about where we live, we choose to live where we can maximise our opportunities and rewards from a work, family and leisure point of view. However, urbanisation and rural depopulation have been linked with family disconnections. This is nothing to do with the breakdown of families per se but with the dispersion of family members and family generations. In many countries, young people leave rural areas in search of work, leaving behind older people, and in some cases these older people are left with their grandchildren to care for. In other countries, resourced older people move from urban to rural areas to enjoy their retirement, thus distancing themselves from their families and other social networks, which the Global Ageing Survey clearly shows are so important for our well-being. That same survey also shows how important family is to each and every one of us, wherever we live, even if we have to do family at a distance. But when the family support is geographically disengaged, who will provide and finance support for these ageing rural populations?
These issues were at the forefront of a 2-day workshop organised at the University of Zittau/Gorlitz in Gorlitz, Germany, June 12th-13th, for members of the EAST Research Network, one of four regional research networks established by the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing. Presentations by keynote speakers such as Professors Ewa Fratczak from the Warsaw School of Economics and Agnes Nemenyi from the University of Cluj-Napoca in Romania.
Delegates from 10 Central and Eastern European countries presented and discussed a variety of issues arising from the depopulation of rural areas in Central and Eastern Europe, ranging from the challenges of providing long-term care to the provision of institutional childcare, from land ownership and its impact on rural depopulation to rural labour markets.
The conclusions? Well, it clearly does matter where we live. And it clearly matters what governments are doing to ensure sustainable development, wherever we as citizens choose or are forced to live.
About the Author
Dr. George W. Leeson is Co-Director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, University of Oxford.
Opinions of the blogger is their own and not endorsed by the Institute
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