Skip to main content

Blog

Getting older and more urban – a world of challenge and opportunity


The world is ageing – both at an individual and population level – and this ageing produces challenges and opportunities for governments and citizens across the globe. In addition, the world is becoming increasingly urbanised. In 1950, 70 per cent of people globally lived in rural settlements and just 30 per cent in urban settlements. By 2014, 54 per cent of the world’s population lived in urban settings and the urban population of the world is expected to continue to grow, so that by 2050, 66 per cent of the world’s almost 10 billion inhabitants will be urban dwellers – a reversal of the situation in 1950. 

Globally, life expectancies at birth have increased from 47 years in the mid-20thcentury to around 71 years today, and are expected to rise to around 78 years by the mid-21stcentury. As for the ageing of the population, the world’s population aged 60 years and over has increased from 200 million and 8 per cent of world population in the mid-20thcentury to almost 1 billion and 12 per cent. By 2050, it is expected to reach 21 per cent and around 2.1 billion people. Both individual ageing and population ageing, however, are not uniform across the world, nor within regions of the world or even within countries of the world, and the experience of ageing as well as the societal response to ageing is diverse, giving rise to striking, even shocking inequalities in many cases. 

Urbanisation is no more uniform than ageing. In 2014, the most urbanized regions were North America (82 per cent living in urban areas), Latin America and the Caribbean (80 per cent), and Europe (73 per cent), while Africa and Asia remained mostly rural, with 40 and 48 per cent of their respective populations living in urban areas. As the world continues to urbanize, the most rural regions of Africa and Asia will urbanize faster than elsewhere – their urban populations reaching 56 and 64 per cent of their total populations, respectively, by 2050. Although the proportion of the global population living in rural areas has declined, the number of people living in the global rural community has grown and is expected to peak in the near future. Currently, the global rural community amounts to almost 3.4 billion people and Africa and Asia are home to almost 90 per cent of these. No surprise perhaps that India has the largest rural population (857 million), followed by China (635 million).

Population growth and urbanization are predicted to continue into the 21stcentury, bringing an additional 2.5 billion people to the world’s urban community by 2050. Strikingly, three countries alone – namely India, China and Nigeria – are together predicted to account for 37 per cent of this projected growth in the world’s urban community between 2014 and 2050, with India adding 404 million urban dwellers, China 292 million and Nigeria 212 million. 

These demographic changes impact and will continue to impact across societies around the world. Growing old in the future in increasingly urbanized societies dominated demographically by older people will be fundamentally different from growing old in the (recent) past in less urbanized societies which were dominated demographically by younger people. There are implications for individuals with respect to planning for old age; for families comprising more and more generations; for communities with increasing numbers of extreme aged people needing care and support; for workplaces short of younger skills. And governments will need to rethink how public services are planned and delivered across all government departments. This development will everywhere require a co-ordinated response across government in order to reflect the inter-connectedness of policies affected by the ageing and urbanizing of populations.

The ageing of the population will see chronic conditions, multi-morbidities, and cognitive impairments become more common, and in societies where the family plays a pivotal supporting and caring role, family members will be under pressure to balance this care role with other work responsibilities. Demand and supply of care may therefore diverge, as more and more people need support while the pool of (younger) workers decreases and families feel the strain. 

In high income countries, productivity and economic development will be linked to the ability to retain and reskill older workers, and work beyond traditional retirement age will be an important pillar of financial security in old age. Radical changes in workplace mentality in these countries will be fundamental to economic wellbeing in the 21stcentury.Low and middle income countries on the other hand have been transitioning away from traditional rural ways of life in favour of a more modern urban way of life. Large numbers of young citizens in these societies have been educated to levels above those of their parents and grandparents, and they have aspirations to match these higher levels of education – aspirations which governments need to meet and utilise for the continued development of their country. At the same time, demographically, these societies are ageing, and with this ageing demographic come new challenges with respect to working life, health care and old age income security.

Lifelong learning, training and re-training will become important as populations age as this will allow us to remain active in the workplace and community, which in turn will enhance individual health and wellbeing. Our homes will play a major role in our future lives, and not just as places to live. Our homes will become places of work, play and care, and appropriately designed and adaptable housing will similarly enable us and contribute to our health and well-being as we age. 

In addition to living longer, more and more of us live or aspire to live in urban communities, so it is vital that these communities are managed and developed responsibly. Our urban communities are arguably important drivers of development as significant proportions of any nation’s economic activity, government, business and trade, and transportation emanate from these communities. Those living in these communities potentially have access to better education, better health, and social services, and they have better and more opportunities for cultural and political participation. But for all these positive aspects of urbanisation, rapid and unplanned urban growth can be a threat to sustainable development. This happens when the necessary infrastructure is not developed or when the benefits of urban living are not distributed equitably across the tens of millions of citizens in these communities. Urban areas then become more unequal communities with millions of the urban poor living in unacceptable conditions. 

Our 21stcentury world does indeed present both challenges and opportunities. 

 

Data sources:

United Nations (2014) World Urbanization Prospects: 2014 Revision, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York. 

United Nations (2017) World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York.

 

About the Author

Dr George W. Leeson is Director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, University of Oxford.


Opinions of the blogger is their own and not endorsed by the Institute

Comments Welcome: We welcome your comments on this or any of the Institute's blog posts. Please feel free to email comments to be posted on your behalf to administrator@ageing.ox.ac.uk or use the Disqus facility linked below.